A PATH WHERE NO MAN THOUGHT: NUCLEAR WINTER AND THE END OF THE ARMS RACE

Book ID/图书代码： 14931614B01838

English Summary/英文概要： The spread of nuclear weapons to unstable third world countries such as Iraq means that despite the dramatic improvement in US/Soviet relations, we are living in a time of unprecedented danger of nuclear war. In 1990, there are still enough nuclear weapons in the world to devastate every city 25 times over. In 1982, Professors Sagan and Turco made known their discovery of the concept "nuclear winter", a widespread cold and dark, resulting in agricultural collapse and world famine, that would be generated in even a "small" nuclear war. It was a landmark discovery that revealed in the starkest terms how vulnerable our civilization is to the long-term environmental effects of nuclear war. Carl Sagan, Pullitzer prize-winning science writer, and Richard Turco, tell their personal story of their findings, and how, despite the much-heralded thawing of the Cold War, there are dangerous inadequacies in US and Soviet nuclear policy and doctrine that need to be addressed.

Chinese Summary/中文概要： 不稳定的第三世界国家，例如伊拉克，也已经拥有了核武器，表示尽管美苏关系已经日趋缓和，我们仍旧身处在核战争的危险之中。1990年，全球的核武器足够将所有城市毁灭25次。在1982年，Sagan教授和Turco教授提出了“核武冬季”的概念，即使发生十分小规模的一次核战争，地球上也将出现大规模的寒冷和黑暗，导致农业瘫痪和全球性的饥荒。这是一个标志性的发现，说明我们的文明在核战争带来的环境影响之前是多么地脆弱。Carl Sagan是获得普利策奖的科学作家，他和Richard Turco一起讲述了他们的发现，以及尽管冷战已经逐渐远去，两国的核武器使用条款仍是相当危险的。(LYR)

Awards/获奖情况：即使是规模有限的核战争，其爆发的灰尘颗粒和烟雾也将使世界被寒冷和黑暗笼罩。20世纪80年代早期，Sagan和Turco就首次预言了“核武冬季”和随之而来的饥荒、放射物污染、平流层臭氧耗尽以及由此射入的致命的紫外线辐射。在一份重要的、带来希望的报告中，太空学家和环境科学家联合起来驳斥了这个假设，并详细描述了如此灾变对于环境和社会的后果。核武冬季的预告就好像两国如果互相发一颗导弹，那么“几乎所有美国人都会死了”。事实上，那些详尽的如何削减军火的计划将会“不足以带来足够的威慑作用”，也是这本书无法为一般评论者和政治决策者所想象的原因之一。（Publishers Weekly）

From Publishers Weekly

High-altitude dust particles and smoke generated by even a "limited" nuclear war could plunge the Earth into cold and darkness. The ensuing "nuclear winter," as Sagan and Turco first predicted in the early 1980s, would bring famine, radioactive fallout, depletion of stratospheric ozone and an influx of lethal solar ultraviolet radiation. In an important, hope-giving report, the eminent astronomer and atmospheric scientist team up to refute critics of the nuclear winter hypothesis, and to spell out in greater detail what the environmental and social consequences of such an apocalypse might be. Nuclear winter makes it likely that "nearly all Americans will die" in a central exchange of missiles between the two superpowers, the authors stress. Their detailed proposals for reducing arsenals to achieve a "minimum sufficient deterrance" make this a book that neither concerned citizens nor policymakers can ignore. Photos.

From Library Journal

This comprehensive examination of the phenomenon of nuclear winter serves as a sequel of sorts to Paul Ehrlich and others’ The Cold and the Dark: The World After Nuclear War ( LJ 9/1/84) and the source book Environmental Consequences of a Nuclear War (Wiley, 1986). The authors provide updated information about the global climate and nuclear war’s likely impact on it. They debunk the contention that strategic policies should not be decided on the basis of a mere theory, pointing out that policy is always made on the basis of incomplete information, and that the levels of knowledge about the environmental effects of nuclear war are at least comparable to that in many other policy areas. Though not likely to attract the attention of the media at a time when concerns about nuclear war are now treated as "old hat," the book is nevertheless an important reminder that nuclear war is an issue of supreme ecological importance. After all, as the authors remind us, the superpowers have yet to eliminate more than a tiny fraction of their nuclear stockpiles.- Jennifer Scarlott, World Policy Inst., New York

About the Author/作者介绍： Carl Sagan是天文和太空科学教授，在康奈尔大学担任行星研究实验室负责人。他因对航空航天事业的贡献而获得了NASA办法的杰出科学成就奖章。Sagan博士是普利策奖获得者，他在科学、文学、教育以及环境保护方面的努力还曾获得过全美国家科学院以及国家科学基金的褒奖以及其他大量奖项。他的著作《Cosmos》是迄今最畅销的英语科学作品，他最受好评的小说《Contact》已经被翻拍为电影。

Carl Sagan was Professor of Astronomy and Space Sciences and Director of the Laboratory for Planetary Studies at Cornell University. He played a leading role in the Mariner, Viking, and Voyager spacecraft expeditions to the planets, for which he received the NASA medals for Exceptional Scientific Achievement. Dr. Sagan received the Pulitzer Prize and the highest awards of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation, and many other awards, for his contributions to science, literature, education, and the preservation of the environment. His book Cosmos (accompanying his Emmy- and Peabody Award-winning television series of the same name) was the bestselling science book ever published in the English language, and his bestselling novel, Contact, was turned into a major motion picture.

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